MiG-29, Su-34 and Su-35s: Ukraine destroys Russian warplanes faster than Moscow can build them

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Despite ramping up military spending, Russia's aviation industry is producing fewer than 30 tactical aircraft annually, unable to match losses from Ukrainian strikes and far behind its Cold War-era output. Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko discussed the issue, Obozrevatel reports.

Russia's military aviation sector is struggling to maintain production levels that peaked nearly a decade ago, raising questions about Moscow's ability to sustain its air warfare capabilities amid ongoing losses in Ukraine.

Recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Crimea's Kacha military airfield destroyed a MiG-29 fighter and a Su-24 frontline bomber within 24 hours, highlighting a critical challenge for Russia: these aircraft models are no longer in production. Russian facilities can repair and occasionally modernize existing MiG-29 and Su-34 aircraft, but manufacturing has long ceased, making such losses permanent.

The production figures paint a stark picture of decline. In 2014, Russia's aviation industry hit its post-Soviet peak, delivering 101 tactical aircraft to its Aerospace Forces—the only time in 35 years that annual production exceeded 100 units. Since then, output has plummeted dramatically.

From 2015 through 2024, deliveries steadily declined: 89 aircraft in 2015, dropping to just 20 by 2021. The past six years have seen Russian military aviation production stagnate between 20 and 30 aircraft annually, with 2024 producing only 28 units.

Through December 2025, Russia has delivered just 28 tactical aircraft to its military forces. The Novosibirsk Chkalov Aviation Plant produced 12 Su-34 fighter-bombers—currently Russia's most mass-produced combat aircraft—while the Komsomolsk-on-Amur Gagarin Aviation Plant delivered 12 Su-35 multirole fighters. The same facility managed only two Su-57 fifth-generation fighters for domestic use, though it reportedly produced two additional units for an unnamed foreign customer, likely Algeria.

The Irkutsk Aviation Plant delivered merely two Su-30SM2 fighters to Russia's Baltic Fleet in November—the first delivery to naval aviation in two and a half years. The plant also sent four Su-30SM2s to Belarus. Notably, no Yak-130 training aircraft were delivered in 2025, despite a contract calling for 25 units by year's end.

Verified losses tell another troubling story for Moscow. Since 2022, Russia has lost 41 Su-34s and 8 Su-35s according to confirmed reports, with unverified claims suggesting losses exceeding 80 Su-34s and 25 Su-35s. At current production rates of roughly one to two Su-34s per month, Russia cannot quickly replace these losses.

The contrast with Western production is striking. Lockheed Martin's F-35 production surpassed 130 units in 2025 and is projected to reach a record 160 aircraft by year's end—more than five times Russia's entire tactical aviation output.
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